Halden is discounting first, discounting early, and stopping soonest.
Three competitors, six flow types, 37 days of triggered observation. The pattern is consistent enough to act on: Halden concedes margin in the first four hours that every competitor holds for at least nineteen, then leaves the sequence before any of them have finished escalating.
The three findings that matter
Halden opens the cart flow at 10% off, four hours after abandonment. Verda Supply holds zero for 22 hours. Bloom & Boyd holds zero for 19. Nordkraft never offers a percentage discount until day four, and caps at 12%.
Every shopper who would have converted without an incentive is being handed one. That is a pure margin transfer, and it is happening inside the first afternoon.
Halden's cart flow ends after two emails, at 24 hours. The other three are still sending at day three, day seven and day nine respectively. Bloom & Boyd send three more emails after Halden has gone quiet, and their final offer is 2.5× Halden's best.
Whatever recovery happens between day two and day nine, Halden is not competing for it.
Nordkraft reached a 12% ceiling and got there with only three emails — by not discounting at all in email two. They used a reviews-and-sourcing block instead, then made a single modest offer on day four.
This is the most useful thing in the report. It shows the escalation ladder is not the only viable shape, and gives Halden a lower-margin test to run against the obvious one.
Where each brand stands
| Brand | Cart emails | First offer at | Opening offer | Peak offer | Sequence ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halden · your client | 2 | 4h 00m | 10% | 10% | 24h |
| Verda Supply | 4 | 22h 11m | 0% | 20% + ship | day 7 |
| Nordkraft | 3 | 96h 20m | 0% | 12% | day 4 |
| Bloom & Boyd | 5 | 19h 04m | 0% | 25% | day 9 |
Coverage in this report
| Flow | Halden | Verda Supply | Nordkraft | Bloom & Boyd |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welcome series | observed | observed | observed | observed |
| Browse abandonment | none detected | observed | none detected | observed |
| Cart abandonment | observed | observed | observed | observed |
| Checkout abandonment | observed | observed | merged with cart | observed |
| Post-purchase | not purchased | observed | not purchased | not purchased |
| Winback | in progress | in progress · ETA 12 Sep | not started | not started |
Post-purchase for three of four brands. This teardown was scoped without purchases. Only Verda Supply was bought from (14 Jun, one unit, refunded 22 Jun) because a post-purchase sequence was specifically requested. The other three are unobserved, not absent.
Winback for all four. A lapsed-customer sequence requires a purchase followed by 60–90 days of deliberate silence. Verda Supply's dormancy clock started 22 Jun; earliest observation is 12 Sep. Nothing compresses this.
Nordkraft, 3–8 July. Our second identity stopped receiving mail from Nordkraft on 3 Jul and resumed 8 Jul. We do not know whether that was suppression, a sending pause, or a list hygiene run. Five days are missing and we have not interpolated across them.